Facebook is now officially a public
company, scads of new millionaires are on a Silicon Valley spending
spree, and media outlets near and far have yet to pipe down about the IPO,
likely one of the most anticipated in history. But is the long-term
viability and success of Facebook a slam dunk?
You’d think so, considering 900 million people on the planet use the
social network now valued at nearly $105 billion. Not everybody thinks so. The
Telegraph’s Michael Deacon says he was once addicted to Facebook but now thinks
its users hardly have anything to say on it compared with Twitter, which he calls
“magnetic” because it “incessantly breaks and circulates news.” He even goes as
far to say Facebook in a few years will “be as sad and lonely a ghost town as
MySpace.” I wouldn’t go quite that far, but he makes some valid points. Many
people have grown tired of Facebook and do prefer alternate social networks,
such as Google+. Google certainly is serious about social and it’s no secret
that Facebook wants more of Google’s advertising, but who will come out on top?
Social Networking Rivalry
Yes, Facebook
has a huge head start in social compared to Google, but Google+ users tend to
be fiercely loyal because, honestly, it’s a great -- albeit very different –
product. Unlike Facebook, Google+ is where you’re more likely to engage with
strangers -- many of whom reach out from countries around the world. Just this
morning I had a Google+ chat with a blogger from India who, even though he uses
both Facebook and Google+, was only able to reach me through the latter where
in seconds we were having a conversation about the merits of both social
networks. Such contact wouldn’t have happened on Facebook because my Facebook
friends are all in the U.S. and most of them know me personally, which means I
keep my chat disabled because I don’t want people I haven’t seen in 20 years
messaging me every time I check my stream. Eric Norstrom, a molecular and
cellular neurobiologist, is another person with whom I’ve connected through
Google+. Here’s how he aptly puts it: “G+ is not FB, Twitter, or anything else.
It's G+. It's great for content aggregation and collaboration in addition to
the services provided by the other major social apps. It's not people bleating
on a street corner. It's more like, you walk down a street and don't see
anyone, but then you go into a building and you find that there's a party going
on. Not only that, it's a good party with interesting people talking about
things you care about and leaving out things you don't. Less noise, more
signal.” He’s right about Google+ being a more lively place to hang out. You’re
not likely to see inane posts -- most contain photos, videos or links to other
interesting content. This morning someone in one of my circles shared a post by
Google Maps touting a NASA map that shows
where the May 20 eclipse can be seen.
Google’s Many Products are an Advantage
While there certainly
were some privacy concerns when Google said it would share user data across its products, it
can’t be denied that the company has created a slick and seamless experience
for users. On my Android phone I use Places, Maps and Navigation, YouTube,
Voice, Talk, Calendar, Drive, Goggles, and Play Music, and many of these apps
sync to the cloud for integration to the desktop. In essence, Google has a very
large window into what I’m doing, where I’m going, what I’m watching, and who
I’m talking to. And this window stays open for much of every day I’m online or
using my phone. While Facebook also garners data from me when I’m on its
network, I’m not there very often, relatively speaking.
Battle Over Advertising
Facebook has many fans,
is growing on a billion users, and now has a big pile of money with which to
continue to innovate. For instance, the company recently said that at some
point it could launch an advertising network to display ads outside of its platform. That would be huge and put
the company in a much better place to compete with Google. CNET’s Rafe Needleman wrote a great piece summing up the many ways
Facebook and Google’s trajectories cross, particularly when it comes to
advertising. And as he points out, both companies have their strengths. “The
infusion of public IPO money will embolden Facebook to take on Google directly
in areas where it's clearly weaker -- primarily advertising, but also search
and mobile. Google will defend its turf while simultaneously attacking Facebook
in social (and hopefully in identity services),” he writes. That last part --
identity services that let you sign into a Website or account using your
Facebook credentials -- is definitely something Facebook has a good hold on,
and as Needleman points out, it’s something Google needs to get better at
marketing. But Google is kicking it with mobile. CEO Larry Page, in a letter to investors
last month said the company is
“seeing a hugely positive revenue impact from mobile advertising, which grew to
a run rate of over $2.5 billion by the third quarter of 2011 -- two and a half
times more than at the same point in 2010.” Can Facebook figure out how to get
some of that pie? It had better -- its users are now using the social network
more from their mobile devices than from their desktops. If it doesn’t, Michael
Deacon’s dire prediction about Facebook might just come true.
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