Just as consumers are wrapping
their heads around 4G, the wireless industry is thinking ahead to 5G. Soaring
smartphone and tablet sales mean networks are growing clogged with cellular data
traffic. For the time being, 4G technology can help relieve the
congestion. Modern networks are able to cram more data into their airwaves than
older technologies can. But soon, even 4G's efficiencies won't be enough.By
2020, industry analysts say the amount of cellular traffic created
by smartphones and tablets will be dwarfed by the data generated from the world
of connected "things." Shoes, watches, appliances, cars, thermostats will all be on the network. That's a
big problem for wireless carriers, which are hitting a point of diminishing
returns on their network efficiency improvements. They're butting up against
the limits of physics as they try to add capacity. Any further improvements
will be incremental, at best. Take LTE-Advanced. It's the next big post-4G
upgrade in the pipeline, and it's theoretically capable of speeds of up to 1
gigabit per second, about 10 times that of current 4G networks. In real-world
situations, though, LTE-A will only deliver speeds of up to 15 megabits per
second -- just slightly faster than the 12 megabits per second that 4G networks
currently offer. "5G won't be about more speed, necessarily," says
Tod Sizer, head of wireless research at Alcatel-Lucent's (ALU)
Bell Labs. "It may be faster, but it will be more about meeting the
expectation of service quality."
A cell tower that fits in your palm
Each generation of network
technology has enabled a new set of features: 2G was about voice, 3G was about
data and 4G is about video. 5G, Sizer predicts, will be about intelligent
networks that can handle billions of connected devices while remaining stable
and operational. That will be tricky if the future proves as connected as
industry leaders forecast. At last week's Mobile World Congress, the wireless
industry's largest annual gathering, Google (GOOG, Fortune 500) Chairman Eric Schmidt painted a picture of a not-too-distant future in which
robots will travel to meetings for us and send back high-definition video over
the network. AT&T (T, Fortune 500),
Qualcomm (QCOM, Fortune 500), Sony (SNE)
and Intel demonstrated a "connected home"
where even our clothing transmits wireless signal. It will be up to 5G network
technology to know how to prioritize all the things trying to communicate. The
network will have to know that it can wait until its congestion dies down to
send your command to your thermostat to raise the temperature by 10 degrees
when you get home -- but your phone call needs to go through immediately.
So when
will 5G be ready? Officially, it doesn't even exist. The standards-setting
International Telecommunication Union has not yet created a definition for 5G. The
current bleeding-edge technology, 4G, is still in its infancy. Existing
networks haven't come close to reaching the theoretical maximum speeds
that the technology offers, and their deployment is limited. The nation's most
extensive 4G network, run by Verizon, now covers 200 million people, but
they're not rushing to upgrade. Verizon has sold less than 6 million 4G-capable
devices. Sprint (S, Fortune 500) and
AT&T spokesmen said they had nothing to share about intelligent network
technology or anything branded as 5G. Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) spokesman Tom Pica said, "The future
is here, and it's Verizon Wireless 4G-LTE." He added: "Personally,
I'm hoping you'll put the heat on Detroit for the flying cars." But
with the rapid pace of change in the wireless industry, current 4G technology
alone will be
inadequate in just five years, says Bell Labs' Sizer. "The
trend of telephony is now headed towards machines that connect to the
network," he says. "Networks will have to understand each application
and know what quality means." 
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