Iran's nuclear program: A Mystery !

There are "red lines," a "window of opportunity," the risk of a "zone of immunity," and plenty of other cryptic terms about Iran's nuclear program. What does it involve? Where is it leading? How and when should it be stopped or restrained? Ordinary mortals can't know where those red lines lie; when the "weaponization" of Iran's nuclear material might be imminent; even what Iran's real intentions are. Experts and policy-makers differ about the time Iran would need to develop a nuclear weapon, the space for diplomacy, whether Iran wants a nuclear weapon as an instrument of deterrence or would use it pre-emptively. Or even whether it really is hell-bent on acquiring one.

James Clapper, the U.S. Director of National Intelligence, told the Senate Intelligence Committee in January that Iran was "keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons...We do not know, however, if Iran will eventually build nuclear weapons." Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has no doubt. He told an audience in Washington this week: "Amazingly, some people refuse to acknowledge that Iran's goal is to develop nuclear weapons.....This duck is a nuclear duck and it's time the world started calling a duck a duck," he said.

The Islamic Republic's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, repeated recently that acquiring a nuclear weapon would be "un-Islamic" (in 2005 he issued a fatwah that "the production, stockpiling and use of nuclear weapons are forbidden under Islam, and that the Islamic Republic of Iran shall never acquire these weapons.") Was he sincere? Bluffing? Or looking for a way to begin a graceful climb-down? According to both governments, the United States and Israel are unified in their goal. "We are committed, as Israel is, to preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon," said White House spokesman Jay Carney shortly before Netayahu's visit.

The U.S. Defense Department's Strategic Guidance, published in January, emphasized efforts "to prevent Iran's development of nuclear weapon capability." The quandary: at what point must that "development" be thwarted before it's too late. When Iran has acquired enough low-grade uranium that could if enriched make one weapon? When there is evidence that the process of such enrichment is underway? When it has made enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear warhead? When it has built the weapon? When it has a viable delivery system? (It already has a wide range of ballistic missiles.) How long might each of these phases take? Even the best intelligence agencies might have problems finding out when each of those stages is imminent. After all, an accurate reading of Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction program seemed elusive ten years ago. Policy-makers in Washington say Iran continues to move steadily toward the capability to build a bomb. "It has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons, making the central issue its political will to do so," Clapper told the Senate hearing. But in the meantime, President Obama says, there is still a window for diplomacy, and he has welcomed the scheduled resumption of multilateral talks (involving the United States, the European Union, Russia and China) with Iran.