U.S. officials on Thursday
said that offshoring will hurt the growth of U.S.
programming jobs in this decade, though expansion of healthcare IT and mobile
networks will in turn increase demand for software developers, support
technicians and systems analysts. By 2020, employment in all computer
occupations is expected to increase by 22%, but some IT fields will fare better
than others, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) biennial
update of employment
projections. Demand for software developers will be the
strongest in this period, with increases ranging from 28% to 32%, depending on
the type of software development.
Comparative
growth rates
Projected 10-year growth
|
Compared to other categories
|
Increase 29% or more
|
Much faster than average
|
Increase 20% to 28%
|
Faster than average
|
Increase 10% to 19%
|
About average
|
Increase 3% to 9%
|
More slowly than average
|
Decrease 2% to increase 2%
|
Little or no change
|
Decrease 3% to 9%
|
Decline slowly or moderately
|
Decrease 10% or more
|
Decline rapidly
|
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The BLS update imagines what IT employment will look like
through 2020. The agency's forecasts, particularly for technology-related jobs,
are often controversial because they can't account for rapid market changes and
tech disruptions. But its estimates are often cited in various policy debates
on issues ranging from education to immigration. The IT employment growth rate
projected by the BLS was characterized as "anemic" by Victor
Janulaitis, CEO of Janco Associates, a research firm that analyzes IT wage and
employment trends. "When you consider the overall demand for systems and
applications in high-growth markets like China and India, [the BLS projections]
mean the U.S. will be doing a diminishing portion of the development and
implementation work," said Janulaitis. "If that's the case, the U.S.
will no longer be the leader in IT. "The BLS projections are a bad sign
for the U.S. IT graduates from universities. Those numbers do not cover the net
growth necessary to give all of the graduates jobs," Janulaitis added. The
outlook varies from occupation to occupation. Here's a look at the BLS
projections for various tech jobs.
Job
growth forecast
Job title
|
May 2010 employment
|
2020 jobs forecast
|
Job growth forecast
|
Pct job growth forecast
|
Expected growth rate thru 2020
|
May 2010 median wage
|
Software developers, systems software
|
392,300
|
519,400
|
127,100
|
32%
|
Much faster than average
|
$ 94,180
|
Database administrators
|
110,800
|
144,800
|
34,000
|
31%
|
Much faster than average
|
$ 73,490
|
Network & computer system admins
|
347,300
|
443,800
|
96,500
|
28%
|
Faster than average
|
$ 69,160
|
Software developers, applications
|
520,800
|
664,500
|
143,700
|
28%
|
Faster than average
|
$ 87,790
|
Computer systems analyst
|
544,400
|
664,800
|
120,400
|
22%
|
Faster than average
|
$ 77,740
|
Information Security Analysts, Web Developers, and
Computer Network Architects
|
302,300
|
367,900
|
65,600
|
22%
|
Faster than average
|
$ 75,660
|
Computer & information systems managers
|
307,900
|
363,700
|
55,800
|
18%
|
About average
|
$115,780
|
Computer support specialists
|
607,100
|
717,100
|
110,000
|
18%
|
About average
|
$ 46,260
|
Computer programmers
|
363,100
|
406,800
|
43,700
|
12%
|
Average
|
$ 71,380
|
Source: U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Outlook Handbook
Database
administrators
Demand for database administrators is expected to increase by
31%, with 33,900 jobs being added this decade as enterprises endeavor to cull
valuable information from an ever-growing mountain of data. The field employed
110,800 people in 2010 at a median salary of $73,490.
IT
managers
For IT managers, employment is projected to increase by 55,800
jobs, or 18%, to 363,700 jobs by 2020. The BLS said growth in the healthcare
industry and the need for more IT security may spur an increase in the number
IT management jobs, but the agency added that "cloud computing may shift
some IT services to computer systems design and related services firms,
concentrating jobs in that industry." The median pay for IT managers in
2010 was $115,780.
Computer programmers
The IT occupation expected to show the weakest
growth is computer programming, which is also the profession most susceptible
to off shoring. The number of people employed as computer programmers will
increase by just 12% through the decade, from 363,100 in 2010 to 406,800 by
2020, the BLS projects. That's less than the expected 14% increase in the
number of U.S. jobs across all occupations, IT and otherwise, over the same
period, according to the BLS. Offshoring was blamed for relatively weak growth
in demand for computer programmers. "Since computer programming can be
done from anywhere in the world, companies often hire programmers in countries
where wages are lower," said the BLS. "This ongoing trend will limit
growth for computer programmers in the United States." The median pay for
programmers in 2010 was $71,380.
Help desk, technical
support
The healthcare industry's growth and its shift
to electronic records will help spur demand for computer support specialists, a
job category that includes help desk personnel. There were 607,000 people
employed in computer support in 2010. That figure is expected to grow to
717,000 by 2020, for an 18% increase. The 2010 median pay for computer support
specialists was $46,260. Technical support workers are also being hurt by a
shift of jobs to other countries, though the BLS is a little more optimistic
about the outlook for this occupation. "A recent trend to move jobs to
lower-cost regions of the United States may offset some loss of jobs to other
countries," the bureau said, referring to the trend of hiring people who
handle call center duties largely from their homes.
Systems analysts
The BLS projects that the number of computer
systems analysts will grow by 22% through 2020, thanks to the spread of mobile
networks and the expanded use of computerized healthcare tools, such as
e-prescription systems. The number of computer system analysts in the U.S. in
2010 was 544,000. That figure is expected to rise 22% to 664,800 by 2020. The
median salary of a systems analyst was $77,740 in 2010.
Software developers
The BLS said there were 913,100 software
developers in the U.S. 2010; they were earning a median salary of $90,530. The
bureau forecasts that the number of software development jobs will increase by
30%, or 270,900, through 2020. The fastest rate of growth (32%) will be for
system software developers, and the lowest (28%) will be for application
developers, the bureau said.
Other IT occupations
In 2010, there were 347,200 network and
computer systems administrators employed in the U.S., earning a median wage of
$69,160. Employment in these occupations is expected to grow by 96,600 jobs, or
28%, through 2020. The BLS lumps information security analysts, Web developers
and computer network architects in a single category. It said a combined
302,300 people held those positions in 2010 and projected that employment in
that category would grow 22% to 367,900 jobs by 2020. The median pay for all
workers in that category was $75,660 in 2010.
BLS critics
Ron Hira, an associate professor of public
policy at the Rochester Institute of Technology, said the BLS IT forecasts have
been wildly wrong in the past. "Volatile occupations tend to be subject to
bad forecasts, and it's clear that computer occupation employment levels are
very hard to forecast," said Hira. "The forecasts are biased toward
the most recent history in the occupation," he said. Hira said he would
place more stock in growth projections for a predictable profession. Citing
primary school teachers as an example, he pointed out that the BLS can estimate
the number of births during the decade and factor in teacher-student ratios to
reach an estimate of employment growth. The BLS has "no methodology to
estimate technological disruptions that can increase demand for computer
occupations," said Hira, citing the rapid increases in the use of the
Internet and ERP systems as examples of IT disruptions. David Foote, CEO of
Foote Partners, an IT labor market research firm, scoffed at the BLS's
projections and said they extended too far out into the future to be reliable. In
light of "current market volatility and uncertainty which is
unprecedented," Foote said that anyone who makes a 10-year IT employment
projection "is kidding themselves." The projections don't take into
account the rate of technological change, he said. Foote said the BLS only
identifies a "small group" of IT jobs and doesn't track the new kinds
of technology jobs that combine business and IT experience to create hybrid
professions. Much of that is being driven by the demands to find useful ways to
apply use so-called big data in a business.